March 4, 2010

Thin market so thin profit

Not so much happening in the Tennis world with the Monterrey Open being the only tournament broadcasted and volumed by the market during this week until Friday when Davis Cup is starting.

As you can expect from the headline, the profit line doesn't look sweet lately as the markets are simply horrible for trading, except when one of the " big " names is involved during Monterrey Open. Big name I am considering around general ranking of 27 as Jankovic went out in first round already being seeded first and ranked 8 - typical low profile tournament which actually nobody even cares about.

I noticed the markets being horrible, although around 400k were matched during in-play and around 150k before going in-play. Don't remember exactly which fixture it was, but I remember a scenario of the following prices ( written 3 prices back, 3 prices lay ):

1.35 - 1.40 - 1.67 | 1.75 - 1.99 - 3.00

Now as a general rule, you will read in other blogs and services as soon as 100k are matched before going in-play the games are pretty much suitable for trading. I am totally different about this as in big tournaments this rule might be right, as in the first 10 minutes you can expect at least 50k to be matched and good market movement but not here. One more note here was that the back volume for 1.67 was a couple of hundred Euros only so nothing really worth while all other positions where not even close to a 500 Euro mark.

Now let's go through the following scenario:

You back the receiver at 0-0 in a game and even if it goes like 0-15 or even 0-30 you will notice that you will be almost unable to trade out ( assuming using stakes higher than 100 Euro or so ) pretty much sure about this.I was in that position in the Pavlushenkova vs Tatishvilli game for quite long which also caused the loss, as server went 0-15 and I wasn't able to trade out until 30-15 with a loss of around 10%. The crazy thing about this fixture was that there were orders in the market in a satisfying number but as soon as the game went 0-15 no chance to back or lay at reasonable prices as all offers were cancelled immediately.

One more thing I noticed was the poor scoreboard both on bet365 / bwin / even in TV transmittion. Only way to really trade fast and react quick was to watch and hear the umpire as almost every fifth point was shown wrong by one of the mentioned scoreboards.

All in all I am really waiting for the Davis Cup to kick off and get finally some volume in markets again and there are a lot of interesting fixtures in the event. Indian Wells Paribas Open are starting on 11 for ATP and 10 for WTA so after Davis Cup first round finishing 7th again two days of break until satisfying markets will be available. Miami is following just 3 days later and as both are hard courts and are top seeded due to being Masters 1k events I think month will end pretty profitable again. So far.
February 18, 2010

Motivating comeback

Hi Guys,

quite a good start after the long break for me back in trading, although most of the profits came from a single football game in Champions League, Bayern Munich vs Fiorentina.

I rarely trade on football as I do not feel very comfortable but in this case I had an idea from the very beginning on what to do about this game which prooved both right and after a red card to Fiorentina very lucky as well.

I had a back bet on Bayern at 1.48 and greened out for around 38% profit after the 1-0 scored by Robben. Was sitting back quite a while until the equalizer and placed an over 2.5 bet immediately after that as this scenario is the typical "1 more to come" in my opinion - as Bayern was in desperate need of a second winner goal and I was a 100% sure about them playing much more offensive which might open counter chances for the guests and this also prooved right.

After the red card for the Italians the price for both the over 2.5 market same as 1x2 market crushed on Bayern Munichs favour and I greened out the 2.5 market and decided to put the whole profit on the hosts which was in the end a little lucky scoring that late but I just feeled like doing a very good ( risk free ) bet in that case.

Tennis is going quite ok as well, I made some mistakes as I was not concentraded enough during the games. This reminds me how important it is to really keep focused when trading and thinking like " oh I can watch some tv during trading or similiar ". Such mistakes I have almost never made before this break so I guess I have to get some more time to get into trading a 100% again but I am quite positive about getting that worked.

Today I will do some of the WTA Dubai matches and of course the Memphis ATP tournament with some matches providing good positions from the start in my eyes. I will update later on and start to write an article about some trading strategies for Tennis I am using regularly.

February 17, 2010

Sorry for the Break

Hi guys,

I have not posted for quite a while and this was due to reason I have had an car accident around middle of january which brought me for being unable to trade for around 2 weeks as being in hospital and being injury struggled doesn't affect your ability to trade well.

As an additional boost, I have experienced big family problems during the very beginning of February and therefore decided to take out some 2 weeks to solve up the things and get a clear head again.

After all this trouble, I will try to start the blog again and being more up to date with my posts of course. Unfortunately I must let you know that I will stop the 10k Challenge as I need much more time for private things at the moment. I will keep the blog updated as often as possible and also included different screenshots and profit / loss reports but I simply do not have the time to update the graphs regularly and write as in detail as I did.

I hope all my readers understand this and who knows maybe I will come up with a completely new challenge with some bigger aims in around 1-2 months - until then, I will keep to blog as updated as I can.
January 13, 2010

Long session with decent profit

I made a very long sessions yesterday night / today morning which ended up of a decent profit of 526Euro which feel compensating for being up until 5am and watching Tennis.

I made a total of 7 trades of which just 2 ended with loss, in the end only one with big loss of -270 Euro as the second was only 10 Euro minus which I don't consider as a real loss. Making a statistic out of that, I made an average of 75 Euro per trade which sounds great to me especially given the fact I made a big mistake in the Gasquet-Becker game which caused a big red for me.

Some thing I noticed is that in seldom cases I tend to stick too long in a trade as in the given example which I will need to work on to keep going forward and especially if rising stakes on later stages.

The biggest profit came of the Statham-Montanes game in which I layed Montaned just after the second game as this wasn't a game until the end of the first set where a favourite can be priced like 1.20 or similiar. Honestly, without knowing both players, I would have set them at least even if not small favour for Statham who just lost nerves in the second set and especially the tie break. He was leading in the tie break when I greened up so this was quite a risky trade, but given the fact i had a lay on 1.20 it felt quite comfortable because even with Monates winning the first set price was still around 1.09 - 1.12 which would not have caused crucial losses.

I will try to write some articles in close future about how I trade and especially how odds are compiled to get people who aren't that familiar with compiling odds as me due to my compiler background which certainly helps a lot when trading and forecasting possible wins / losses.

Tonight again we have a long schedule. So far, especially the following fixtures attract me most:
Lammer vs. Montanes
Definately a game which I will watch out for, as Montanes struggled heavily on his serve. The current price of 1.40 is far too low in my opinion, as I don't rate him to have a realistic 71% to advance against Lammer.I will try to watch first 2-3 games to make up my mind and then decide what to do.

Robredo vs. Isner
Robredo struggled as well yesterday and I See in Isner a much tougher opponent for him today which might even cause some trouble for him. I can imagine Robredo getting broken in this game which will cause a massive swing but again watch first.

Baghdatis vs. Hewitt
Although the win against Troicki looks impressing, it was more due to heavy winds on the court which pulled Troicki to being super aggressive and kind of disgusted. Therefore I see a very fast game with both players being solid in serve in their last games. Especially if Baghdatis gets a break price movement will be big but in total I suggest Hewitt to advance.

Of course there are also a lot of other fixtures but those seeme most interesting to me, let's see what night brings up for us, hopefully a decent green :-)

No action due to Betfair down for 9 hours

Almost no action due to service down on BF just slight loss.

January 11, 2010

Both wins and losses combined

Pretty quiet schedule right now as the liquidity of the markets is very poor even going in-play and being transmitted by bookmakers in their live streams so I have to slow down a bit.

Wasn't able to trade the Nadal - Davydenko game as internet connection broke up due to snow and rain in my area and was extremely slow so I decided not to take any risk of losing total connection and losing whole stake because of that. The game showed how unpredictable Tennis can be with Federer slashing Davydenko in the very first set and then being outplayed by excellent return game of the Russian.

Still I managed to do a satisfying profit of 423 Euro during last 2 days including a lot of night work in that sessions.

Checking the markets today, again the same story as even fixtures involved " big names " such as Pennetta, S. / V. Williams or Safina have not reached a 30k matched on them yet.

As you see in the screenshots, I lost on 2 games in which both were mainly due to lack of turnover during the market. An expected price movement of 10 ticks takes much longer than I thought in those markets and I will be even more aware of this as a right trade still can turnout to be unprofitable due to not filling orders.

As some people seem sceptical about me being really greened for the profits, I put up 2 screenshots of the Betfair trading screens in which you are able to see the profits do not come from pure betting but nothing but greening :-)
January 8, 2010

A profitable night and some ideas for today

I traded all games tonight and although starting quite disgusted by an almost 1 hour delay due to rain, things went very well and I made a good profit of 442 Euro this night. As you can see from the screenshot, the profits were pretty even balanced over all games. By the way, just what I told, Pennetta was very comfortable against Schiavone and honestly I really suggest her to win the first womens title of the year in the final against Wickmayer - still I would wait a bit as I expect her current Betfair price of 1.56 to go up before the match.

The Berdych - Bellucci game was really crazy, especially as I was green for about 130 Euro but had a risky lay running on Berdych which finally destroyed almost all my profit. Next time I guess I will be more careful because although the daily profit was very positive for me, a 130 still makes a difference especially thinking dropping that amount let's say 10 times a month...

For today, I expect the Troicki - Nadal game to be more balanced than Nadal's current price of 1.05 on the exchange and most bookies indicate. Watch for Troicki being able to take 1-2 points against Nadals serve or even a break as then you might have very valuable trading chances.

Federer - Davydenko is a must trade for me, as the current price of Davydenko of 2.92 is FAR too high in my opinion. The Russian is always to make a play and probably one of the best receivers in the whole game, just remember the season finals 1 month ago - and the price on him was 2.35 then and not 2.92 !
In addition Federer struggled in his last game dropping a set against a strong but still unexperienced Gulbis. Similiar situation for me as to the finals in December and I guess will be much closer than the price indicates.

About Me

I am a 22 years old Tennis trader who is working for a professional sport trading company in Germany. Right now I am trading with a max liability of 500 Euro and will post my results as regularly as I can in here and write some (hopefully) helpful advices for tennis trading beginners.
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