January 13, 2010

Long session with decent profit

I made a very long sessions yesterday night / today morning which ended up of a decent profit of 526Euro which feel compensating for being up until 5am and watching Tennis.

I made a total of 7 trades of which just 2 ended with loss, in the end only one with big loss of -270 Euro as the second was only 10 Euro minus which I don't consider as a real loss. Making a statistic out of that, I made an average of 75 Euro per trade which sounds great to me especially given the fact I made a big mistake in the Gasquet-Becker game which caused a big red for me.

Some thing I noticed is that in seldom cases I tend to stick too long in a trade as in the given example which I will need to work on to keep going forward and especially if rising stakes on later stages.

The biggest profit came of the Statham-Montanes game in which I layed Montaned just after the second game as this wasn't a game until the end of the first set where a favourite can be priced like 1.20 or similiar. Honestly, without knowing both players, I would have set them at least even if not small favour for Statham who just lost nerves in the second set and especially the tie break. He was leading in the tie break when I greened up so this was quite a risky trade, but given the fact i had a lay on 1.20 it felt quite comfortable because even with Monates winning the first set price was still around 1.09 - 1.12 which would not have caused crucial losses.

I will try to write some articles in close future about how I trade and especially how odds are compiled to get people who aren't that familiar with compiling odds as me due to my compiler background which certainly helps a lot when trading and forecasting possible wins / losses.

Tonight again we have a long schedule. So far, especially the following fixtures attract me most:
Lammer vs. Montanes
Definately a game which I will watch out for, as Montanes struggled heavily on his serve. The current price of 1.40 is far too low in my opinion, as I don't rate him to have a realistic 71% to advance against Lammer.I will try to watch first 2-3 games to make up my mind and then decide what to do.

Robredo vs. Isner
Robredo struggled as well yesterday and I See in Isner a much tougher opponent for him today which might even cause some trouble for him. I can imagine Robredo getting broken in this game which will cause a massive swing but again watch first.

Baghdatis vs. Hewitt
Although the win against Troicki looks impressing, it was more due to heavy winds on the court which pulled Troicki to being super aggressive and kind of disgusted. Therefore I see a very fast game with both players being solid in serve in their last games. Especially if Baghdatis gets a break price movement will be big but in total I suggest Hewitt to advance.


Of course there are also a lot of other fixtures but those seeme most interesting to me, let's see what night brings up for us, hopefully a decent green :-)


No action due to Betfair down for 9 hours

Almost no action due to service down on BF just slight loss.

January 11, 2010

Both wins and losses combined




Pretty quiet schedule right now as the liquidity of the markets is very poor even going in-play and being transmitted by bookmakers in their live streams so I have to slow down a bit.

Wasn't able to trade the Nadal - Davydenko game as internet connection broke up due to snow and rain in my area and was extremely slow so I decided not to take any risk of losing total connection and losing whole stake because of that. The game showed how unpredictable Tennis can be with Federer slashing Davydenko in the very first set and then being outplayed by excellent return game of the Russian.

Still I managed to do a satisfying profit of 423 Euro during last 2 days including a lot of night work in that sessions.

Checking the markets today, again the same story as even fixtures involved " big names " such as Pennetta, S. / V. Williams or Safina have not reached a 30k matched on them yet.

As you see in the screenshots, I lost on 2 games in which both were mainly due to lack of turnover during the market. An expected price movement of 10 ticks takes much longer than I thought in those markets and I will be even more aware of this as a right trade still can turnout to be unprofitable due to not filling orders.

As some people seem sceptical about me being really greened for the profits, I put up 2 screenshots of the Betfair trading screens in which you are able to see the profits do not come from pure betting but nothing but greening :-)
January 8, 2010

A profitable night and some ideas for today

I traded all games tonight and although starting quite disgusted by an almost 1 hour delay due to rain, things went very well and I made a good profit of 442 Euro this night. As you can see from the screenshot, the profits were pretty even balanced over all games. By the way, just what I told, Pennetta was very comfortable against Schiavone and honestly I really suggest her to win the first womens title of the year in the final against Wickmayer - still I would wait a bit as I expect her current Betfair price of 1.56 to go up before the match.

The Berdych - Bellucci game was really crazy, especially as I was green for about 130 Euro but had a risky lay running on Berdych which finally destroyed almost all my profit. Next time I guess I will be more careful because although the daily profit was very positive for me, a 130 still makes a difference especially thinking dropping that amount let's say 10 times a month...




For today, I expect the Troicki - Nadal game to be more balanced than Nadal's current price of 1.05 on the exchange and most bookies indicate. Watch for Troicki being able to take 1-2 points against Nadals serve or even a break as then you might have very valuable trading chances.

Federer - Davydenko is a must trade for me, as the current price of Davydenko of 2.92 is FAR too high in my opinion. The Russian is always to make a play and probably one of the best receivers in the whole game, just remember the season finals 1 month ago - and the price on him was 2.35 then and not 2.92 !
In addition Federer struggled in his last game dropping a set against a strong but still unexperienced Gulbis. Similiar situation for me as to the finals in December and I guess will be much closer than the price indicates.
January 7, 2010

First 4 days with a strong profit

Very good start to the Challenge during the first 4 days, unfortunately I wasn't able to trade due to some meetings all Australian night games otherwise I think I would have gone even better but still I am very comfortable after 4 days.

In total, I achieved a profit of 1340 Euro trading a total of 24 markets with a solid 17 positive ending matches. As you see from the screenshots, only 3 games ended up with a bigger loss compared to the winnings which was in the Granollers - Cilic same as Pavlyuchenkova - Ivanovic game due to really strange behaviour which always will happen of course.

My biggest profit came from the Pennetta - Cibulkova fixture in which I let a back bet run as Penneta broke in the very first game and I felt very comfortable about this bet. Turned right as she won without even having small problems - btw. she is yet to drop a serve game and I suggest her to advance against Schiavone so watch up for some positive situations for traders in this game, especially if she can break her opponents serve!

I also added a graph about the current progress of my challenge and will try to improve the blog a little more to make it more attractive to read - feel free to suggest whatever you would like to see / think is necessary.

Welcome to Yellow Trade Blog

The new tennis season has started and I decided to create a blog about my trading and putting up a challenge in which I will try to turn a 1.000 Euro deposit into 15.000 Euro and proove it is possible to make a living out of tennis trading, and not as widely supposed, just by horse racing trading.

Some informations about my person:
I am working for a sportstrading company since around 4 years and visited during October 2009 a trading course hold by Peter Webb in the area of London regarding horse racing trading and trading in general.

After visiting the course, I must admit it improved my trading skills a lot although I had quite a good background compiling odds and betting for years already it helped a lot to understand the basics of especially Betfair odds moving and how to use them to achieve regular profits.

During the challenge which I will keep updated on this blog, I will try to achieve a 10.000 Euro profit by limiting my maximum liability to 400 Euro per trade. Although I will try to trade as " save " as possible, I will still let some back bets run in case I feel the player having a big edge over his/her opponent - so in the end it will be a mix of both trading and betting on tennis.

My aim is to proove to the trading community that it is in fact possible to achieve respectable profits using relatively small stakes in Tennis trading. Of course this won't reach for the first the amounts guys like Adam Heathcote, Psychoff or Peter Webb are talking about in their blogs, but who knows, if succesful and enough interest by people, a higher challenge might follow during this year.

So far, if you have any questions or want to get in contact to me, just drop a comment or write an e-mail to fk[at]glospotra.com

About Me

YellowTrader
I am a 22 years old Tennis trader who is working for a professional sport trading company in Germany. Right now I am trading with a max liability of 500 Euro and will post my results as regularly as I can in here and write some (hopefully) helpful advices for tennis trading beginners.
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